Global warming is a phrase on every farmer’s lips. In recent years, we’ve witnessed changing weather patterns having a dramatic impact on food production – and it , unfortunately, shows no sign of abating.
Here, we assess the current situation and see how different commodities are being affected…
Forecasting the future
Climate change is a global phenomenon and, in 2024, the world surpassed the 1.5°C global warming threshold.
Too much rain, too little rain, high temperatures and low temperatures all have an impact on food production. Droughts, floods, unseasonal frosts and wildfires are becoming more commonplace with harvests being altered immeasurably as a consequence. Spain, parts of Africa and the USA have all been particularly badly hit this year.
Price predictions
Reduced crop yields naturally spark price fluctuations. According to the Food Foundation’s Food Prices Tracker, food inflation rose by 3.3% last month (February) overtaking overall inflation for the first time since September 2024 - and the cost of healthy food is rising more quickly than unhealthy food.
Additionally, the British Retail Consortium has forecast an average food price rise of 4.2% in the latter half of 2025.
Which commodities are affected?
Research by Inverto found steep rises in the prices of a number of food commodities in the year to January that correlated with unexpected weather:
• Sunflower oil prices have increased by 56% after drought caused poor crop yields in Bulgaria and Ukraine
• Orange juice has gone up by more than a third. Yields in Brazil – the world’s biggest exporter – have been badly affected by severe drought as well as crop diseases
• Butter has gone up by 18.3% attributed to a global shortage of milk
• Olive oil up by 16.6% as a result of poor harvests
• Cocoa prices have quadrupled since 2022 up 163%
• Coffee up 103% as a result of droughts in Vietnam and Brazil
Chocolate shortage
Global cocoa production has declined over the last three years, falling 13% in 2024.
Climate change, underinvestment and tree diseases in West Africa, where 70% of cocoa is produced, are the primary causes.
However, the current high prices are allowing farmers in countries outside of West Africa, such as Ecuador, to invest in their farms and increase cocoa planting – which could help see costs decrease in the future.
Spotlight on rice
Rice experts Gallo are the latest manufacturer forced to raise prices as a result of reduced yields, particularly for Arborio and Carnaroli varieties.
Whilst the overall cultivation area of Italian rice grew by 7.5% from 2023 to 2024, paddy farmers chose to focus their efforts on growing more resilient medium grain rice varieties.
As a consequence, prices of Arborio and Canaroli have been on a steady upwards trajectory, with prices currently standing at €960 per ton for Arborio and €1020 for Canaroli, compared with €625 and €650 for the same period last year.
A three-week delay in sowing of the seeds at the beginning of this growing season due to excess rains exacerbated the situation, and there was a significant delay to the harvest, again due to heavy rains.
Paddy purchasing costs €/tonnes in 2024Sunshine on the horizon
It’s not all bad news on the commodities front. Some products have actually been experiencing price decreases. Vanilla, pasta, couscous, barley and pulses have all dropped in price this year.
